Knowledge center · Validation & statistics
Confusion Matrix
How each signal direction (long / flat / short) lined up with what actually happened.
Interpretation
Rows are what the signal said; columns are what the market did over the following 21 days. Mass on the diagonal is correct calls, mass off the diagonal is wrong-way calls.
What good looks like
Long calls concentrated in the "realized up" column, short calls concentrated in "realized down."
What bad looks like
A long row with more mass in "realized down" than "realized up" — the model's bullish calls are backwards.
Typical range
No universal target range; judge it relative to hit rate and sample size (a matrix built on a handful of calls is not reliable).
How OmniSignal uses it
Aggregate hit rate can hide a model that's good at "flat" but bad at picking direction — the matrix shows exactly where the errors concentrate.
References
Standard confusion matrix, applied to directional trading signals
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