Knowledge center · Street & insiders
EPS surprise history
Whether reported earnings beat or missed consensus estimates in recent quarters, and by how much.
Formula
Surprise % = (actual EPS − estimated EPS) / |estimate|.
Interpretation
A consistent beat record means management guides conservatively and executes; repeated misses mean estimates are running ahead of the business. Post-earnings drift makes recent surprises predictive, not just descriptive.
What good looks like
Consistent beats with a positive average surprise.
What bad looks like
Consecutive misses — consensus is still too high, and further cuts usually follow.
Typical range
S&P 500 companies beat roughly 70–75% of the time (managed expectations); the informative part is the magnitude and the exceptions.
Limitations
EPS is manageable (buybacks, one-offs); a beat on collapsing revenue quality is not a beat.
How OmniSignal uses it
Execution against expectations is the cleanest quarterly test of management credibility available for free.
Where it enters the score
The most recent surprise feeds the engine's PEAD factor (drift window); this panel shows the fuller record.
References
Bernard & Thomas (1989) — post-earnings-announcement drift
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