Knowledge center · Factor library
Analyst Target Upside
Implied upside to the average analyst price target, shrunk toward zero with thin coverage.
Formula
(average analyst target − price) ÷ price, shrunk toward zero as analyst-count coverage falls
Interpretation
Sell-side analysts' aggregate view of fair value. Shrinkage toward zero when coverage is thin prevents one or two analysts' targets from overweighting the score.
What good looks like
Meaningful implied upside, especially with broad analyst coverage.
What bad looks like
Price already above target, or negative implied upside.
Typical range
Roughly -20% to +30% implied upside before shrinkage.
Limitations
Analyst targets are forecasts, not facts, and are known to lag price moves and skew optimistic industry-wide; thin coverage produces a heavily shrunk, near-zero reading.
How OmniSignal uses it
A market-based consensus view of valuation, independent of the model's own price-derived factors.
Where it enters the score
Fundamental family
References
Standard sell-side price-target methodology; shrinkage estimation is a standard technique for low-sample-size evidence
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